NG & Classic Models |
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It is well known that first and foremost I am a classics collector. I collect significant areas of more modern aircraft/airlines (mainly Chinese, along with some Russian, Iranian and Indonesian) but classics are my true love. There once was a time when it looked like NG Models were the answer to a classics collector's dreams but that has not panned out as I had hoped. This is despite NG continuing to produce moulds that qualify as classics. Even when they do have them they often don't use them for classics releases or regularly enough, or both. In this third part of my NG production analysis I look at the classic releases made by NG Models to date.
NOTE: The numbers used in this list include all models announced up to the start of July 2023 including the 'future' releases that haven't got a timescale yet.
What's a Classic?
Classic plane, classic livery!
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The scheme may predate 2000 but the winglets rule this one out from being a classic
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So the first thing to tackle is the definition of a classic aircraft/airline livery combination. In this piece I am setting the bar at the year 2000. If the aircraft and airline combination predates the year 2000 I will consider it as a classic. This will no doubt not please everyone, but that is my criteria for this analysis. So:
- Just because a livery or airline is not around today it doesn't make it classic
- Just because the aircraft may be old - if it was active in a livery applied only after the year 2000 it isn't classic
- If an aircraft / livery combination was around after 2000 but was also around before 2000 it can be considered classic (I'm not being nitpicky enough to go by the reg / specific airframe)
Painted in 2007. NOT a classic
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The first AA 772 was delivered in January 1999. This is a classic - JUST!
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This simple date cut-off means in mid-2023 NG Models has the below moulds that could wear classic schemes. It seems weird to me to suggest an A330 or 777 could be a classics but I imagine there are many younger collectors who think 2010 is classic so hopefully the turn of the century is a happy medium.
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NG Models Classic Production
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As I mentioned in the analysis looking at NG Models' overall production, found here, what NG made in its early years was heavily dictated by the moulds it had available. As NG's mould catalogue has grown this has broadened out to the extent the majority of in use aircraft today, with mainline airlines at least, can be represented. The scope for classics has also grown, but obviously not as much. Nonetheless, there are literally hundreds of options for classics releases on the available moulds.
The below table illustrates when moulds came online and how many classics have been made using them each year:
Unsurprisingly the 757 is way out in front here because it was NG's earliest mould, although as you can see the majority of the classics were made in the first couple of years. I've discussed NG's 757 production and how it has changed before - see NG Models 757 Production - An Analysis.
The vast majority of the 747SP and Tristars made are classics (just single models for each I consider modern). As you can see usage for both has been reasonably steady, but always in low numbers. Annoyingly both types have recently had a lot of repetition as well so the diversity of the releases is no way near as high as these base numbers make it look. For example there have been 2 basically identical CAAC SPs, 3 SAA SPs, 3 NH L-1011s, 2 RJ L-1011-500s, 2 AI L-1011-500s, 2 PA L-1011-500s etc etc. These are arguably not even different scheme variants some of the time and certainly not different liveries.
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The opportunity to use newer moulds for classic releases has been almost totally overlooked. Only a trio of A330s have been produced (Aer Lingus and a pair of Dragonairs) and 4 737-800s (2 Britannia, Air China and American Airlines). Sometimes NG has made releases that would qualify as classics (Continental 737-800 for example) but then used the winglet version of the mould, which makes them modern.
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Usage of the Tu-204 for classics has been low as NG has mainly used the mould to make more modern cargo versions. Only a solitary Aeroflot example fits before 2000. Panda has done better with their Tu-204, but only just! The Tu-154 looks like it will be going the same way, if indeed NG use it at all. The output of NG Tu-154s to date has been very low - 6 models in about a year and NG has a fixation on modern Air Force examples.
Classics As a % & a Worrying Trend
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The paucity of classics releases becomes more obvious when you compare classics output to overall NG production. As you can see below NG production has grown massively and yet the % of classics releases has shrunk dramatically to less than 1 in 10 models (even using my quite lax definition of what a classic is). It did pickup slightly in 2021 as the 747SP came online but quickly fell back and never recovered. I hadn't realised it was quite this bad, especially when the numbers below don't take into account two other factors that make things look worse:
1. Re-releases
I haven't got anything against the concept of re-releasing models and changing small details, even just the reg, however this behaviour grates somewhat when you're barely getting any service to start with. The above table numbers are worryingly small but don't take into account the recent trend for re-releasing basically the same models. Of the classics made in 2022 nearly a third of them (7) were basically re-releases (SAA x2, CAAC, PA SPs & BA, RJ, AI L-1011s). That has continued in 2023 where of the 15 announced classics 3 are re-releases (NH x2 and PA L-1011s).
I haven't got anything against the concept of re-releasing models and changing small details, even just the reg, however this behaviour grates somewhat when you're barely getting any service to start with. The above table numbers are worryingly small but don't take into account the recent trend for re-releasing basically the same models. Of the classics made in 2022 nearly a third of them (7) were basically re-releases (SAA x2, CAAC, PA SPs & BA, RJ, AI L-1011s). That has continued in 2023 where of the 15 announced classics 3 are re-releases (NH x2 and PA L-1011s).
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Above: Spot the difference. Two Air India Tristars V2-LEJ and V2-LEK
Below: Deja vu. Two basically identical CAAC 747SPs. I wouldn't mind this if we got plenty of SPs but when you haven't even made the Air China version why do we need 2 CAAC ones?
Below: Deja vu. Two basically identical CAAC 747SPs. I wouldn't mind this if we got plenty of SPs but when you haven't even made the Air China version why do we need 2 CAAC ones?
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2. Buchannan Models
Additionally, the totals above include the output of the NG offshoot Buchannan Models. I have nothing against Buchannan and I guess I'm grateful they exist considering the lack of classics in general, but their output doesn't go far to replace what is missing from NG themselves. Buchannan would be more interesting, and welcome, if there was a decent number of classics being made by NG. Of Buchannan's output to date more than half of it has been rather odd hybrids, often basically half a livery efforts. I doubt these top many people's wishlists when so many obvious high-selling classics are left to make. Don't get me wrong they have made some killer releases like the below Airtours 757 and Iberia Tristar:
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But they have also made some less inspiring hybrids too. If they can sell 120 of this ATA hybrid Tristar you'd think making about any other Tristar livery should be easily achievable:
Classic Potential - Wishlists
Click the images below to access the wishlists
I have produced many wishlists here at Yesterday's Airlines looking at releases for types NG has moulds for. Often these focus on classic options. Obviously for some types like the SP and L-1011 classics are the main focus anyway for wishlists:
I have produced many wishlists here at Yesterday's Airlines looking at releases for types NG has moulds for. Often these focus on classic options. Obviously for some types like the SP and L-1011 classics are the main focus anyway for wishlists:
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A small selection of the models have been made by NG but the vast majority seem some way off, even for major flag carriers. There is also good potential for newer types to get classic releases and once again I've made wishlists for several types looking at classic options. These include A320s, Tu-204s and 737-700s. These lists have almost totally been ignored to date.
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The Problem With Classics?
So why has NG decided to largely stop making classics. Here are some possibilities.
SALES?
The most obvious reason is that they simply don't sell, however I call bullshit on that for a significant number of unmade classic 747SPs and L-1011s, let alone A320s and 73Gs. Clearly many classics sell strongly - just look at the Delta Tristars for example. Without seeing any sales numbers the lack of sales is just conjecture, although clearly you wouldn't expect most Tristars to sell as well as an A350 and surely NG realised that when they made the mould?
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Above: Don't tell me classics don't sell. Some, maybe but not all.
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I do suspect that most classics don't sell as well as many modern releases but I'd hope there was more to NG than just chasing the mighty $. Obviously they need to make a profit but given the options left to make and the tiny percentage of classic releases as a total I struggle to buy the not selling argument.
VOLUMES?
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Above: I'd have thought volume wasn't an issue for either of these classics but as of yet we still haven't seen the other Dragon L-1011 scheme.
It wouldn't surprise me if NG has been increasing its production numbers so less classics seem marketable. Then again, NG have been very innovative with their business model to date so it surprises me that they haven't found a way to make smaller volumes of classic releases if that is an issue, even if they have to price them differently. I do believe the demand exists for many of the models in the wishlists above and certainly it does at the sought of volumes Buchannan Models is making. I don't see this as a major blocker. Hell, even Gemini can justify an Air Mauritius 747SP and it is generally known that GJ are volume driven with their choices.
LACK OF KNOWLEDGE?
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If I'm honest I think a good chunk of the issue is just the unknown. I suspect that the people running NG simply don't have an affinity for historic models from outside of China. 400 scale is notorious for being a field where the owner of a brand makes what they want, not necessarily what collectors are after. I suspect also NG see masses of younger collectors asking for new airlines and go with that, even though older collectors probably buy far more models on a per collector basis?
The lack of understanding of avhistory also probably makes it more difficult for NG to make good selections when it comes to older models. They just don't know what will sell for aircraft they can't see in the news now. The growth in NG's popularity has probably made this aspect worse as they are bombarded by requests - mainly from younger collectors more savvy with social media.
Obviously there are people who could help them here, such as myself, but I admit it has been a longtime since they asked for my advice with releases and I tend not to e-mail them requests. Maybe I should start!
The lack of understanding of avhistory also probably makes it more difficult for NG to make good selections when it comes to older models. They just don't know what will sell for aircraft they can't see in the news now. The growth in NG's popularity has probably made this aspect worse as they are bombarded by requests - mainly from younger collectors more savvy with social media.
Obviously there are people who could help them here, such as myself, but I admit it has been a longtime since they asked for my advice with releases and I tend not to e-mail them requests. Maybe I should start!
EFFORT?
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Above: Later SAA 747SP schemes are a lot simpler than the one they've made three times already.
There's little doubt that there is less source material for older liveries, however nowadays with the internet this is rarely a problem, especially for the major airlines many of the obvious requests for classics involve. Also older liveries tend to be simpler compared to many of the modern schemes, which often feature micaceous paint and computer designed special colours. Obviously, once again there are collectors willing to help in this space too if necessary.
In addition there are some simple but valuable tweaks to older releases that can be made for little cost - such as a hollow titles version of the above TWA twin stripes L-1011 for example.
Summary
The stats illustrate that classic production at NG Models is in a tailspin. Clearly NG do not have faith in the classics market, which is an enormous shame. Somewhat ironically their competition in the form of Gemini and Phoenix have been making more classics in recent months, but sadly often on much inferior moulds.
I do feel NG risk alienating the older collector market somewhat, but then again on the whole they are making wonderful models, just not classic ones. Maybe I am really out of touch about what collectors buy, but I know that when I see release sheets it is the classics that catch my eye and unlike most younger collectors who might buy one or two models a month I'm getting 10-20. I doubt I am alone in wishing that NG had a keener eye for spreading its releases across a wider time range.
NG's approach to classics mirrors the long development cycle of their 747 classic moulds and my enthusiasm for them has been decreased given the way NG has treated their existing classic moulds. Don't get me wrong, NG make probably the best models in 400 scale and some delightful classics too, but they have not lived up to my hopes in this space and I am disappointed. Hopefully things will pickup in the future but I haven't seen any sign that NG's production schedule will be visiting the 20th century more regularly yet.