NG Models Production in 2023 |
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14th June 2023
NOTE: The numbers used in this list include all models announced up to the start of July 2023 including the 'future' releases that haven't got a timescale yet.
Following on from my look at NG Models airline production in part 1, I now move to looking at what they've been up to in 2023. What airlines and aircraft types have been the focus and what regions do they represent?
One thing that has been a feature of NG in recent times is that there has been some slippage in delivery times and this can make it a challenge to actually get the same numbers for models produced from different sources, especially when you cross the end of year boundary. As an example when I looked at what types had been produced in 2023 the count was 178 but when I looked at the actual releases in 2023 the number is 172. I suspect the 6 astray models are mislabelled end of year releases or 2022 announcements not yet released. Getting the numbers to match is no small endeavour and doesn't impact this analysis a great deal so I've decided to live with it in this piece.
One thing that has been a feature of NG in recent times is that there has been some slippage in delivery times and this can make it a challenge to actually get the same numbers for models produced from different sources, especially when you cross the end of year boundary. As an example when I looked at what types had been produced in 2023 the count was 178 but when I looked at the actual releases in 2023 the number is 172. I suspect the 6 astray models are mislabelled end of year releases or 2022 announcements not yet released. Getting the numbers to match is no small endeavour and doesn't impact this analysis a great deal so I've decided to live with it in this piece.
Regardless which of the numbers is correct making over 170 models in half a year is a massive undertaking considering in 2022 they made 227 in total and in 2021 only 126. NG continues to increase the number of releases substantially. There continues to be some discussion of 'flooding the market' (often from those with a vested interest in stopping competition) but as of yet no obvious signs that this is a problem for NG or collectors.
2023 By Mould
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Production so far this year has focused heavily on moulds introduced towards the end of last year - especially the new A321 and 777-200s - each with over 20 releases apiece. The other members of the A320 and 777 families have also seen some usage, but you feel there is plenty more to come on the A320 itself, especially when the 737-800 (one of NG's earliest moulds) continues to get very strong usage.
The 2023 737 MAX moulds are also gradually building up steam. The bulk of the other releases consists of the other 737NG moulds plus the 787s, whereas usage of the A350, especially the new series 1000 mould, has been lower than maybe expected.
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The 747SP has largely been ignored in 2023 with just two announcements (Corsair and Qantas) - one of which has actually been delivered. The first pair of 747-8 announcements indicate the upcoming new mould's debut.
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Usage of the Boeing 757 and Lockheed Tristar moulds appears quite strong but there are several caveats with this that detract from the apparently decent release totals:
757s - 2 have been United 'Her Art Here' re-releases and 2 have been Buchannan Models hybrids with smaller production numbers and limited appeal. So there have really only been 3 proper new 757s - 2 x Cebu Pacific and 1 TWA transition scheme.
L-1011s - Of the 9 Tristars: 2 are effectively All Nippon re-releases and 1 is a Pan Am re-release. 2 others have been Buchannan releases, one of which is an obscure hybrid. A further pair are 'future' models - both of which were initially announced in 2022. Arguably there really have only been the following 'new' L-1011s this year - Iberia and Cathay Pacific.
757s - 2 have been United 'Her Art Here' re-releases and 2 have been Buchannan Models hybrids with smaller production numbers and limited appeal. So there have really only been 3 proper new 757s - 2 x Cebu Pacific and 1 TWA transition scheme.
L-1011s - Of the 9 Tristars: 2 are effectively All Nippon re-releases and 1 is a Pan Am re-release. 2 others have been Buchannan releases, one of which is an obscure hybrid. A further pair are 'future' models - both of which were initially announced in 2022. Arguably there really have only been the following 'new' L-1011s this year - Iberia and Cathay Pacific.
Wonderful but rare
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Very familiar!
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The more niche moulds have been treated equally poorly. The Tupolev Tu-154 continues to be barely used at all even though it received very little usage in 2022 as well. The pair of Russian Air Force Tu-154Bs are particularly boring. The Tu-204s fair worse with zero usage over the past 6 months.
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If the numbers are split by aircraft family the predominance of A320s, 737s and 777s is more obvious, with A330s and 787s coming 4th and 5th:
2023 by Airline
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NG Models has released models for an impressive 81 airlines in 2023, which indicates a good diversity. There have been cargo airlines, government aircraft, manufacturer colours and air forces, in addition to passenger airlines. By my count 7 of these airlines no longer exist (ATA, BOAC, British Midland, Continental, Malev, Pan Am and TWA), although two of those were Buchannan releases and the BOAC model is a fantasy release. The vast majority of releases are contemporary airlines and liveries.
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The top 13 airlines of 2023 shows Qatar Airways way out in the lead, followed by two of the three Chinese majors. Air India has become an airline of focus this year (previously there had only been 2 Air India releases). Of NG's all time top 10 only Delta and United are missing. Delta's absene may relate to the threatening legal letters Delta sent out to everyone except Gemini and JC Wings.
Airlines with 4 models in the top 13 include mostly special scheme variants or where the airline has multiple livery variations (except for JetStar and All Nippon).
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One last thing to say about the airlines being chosen in 2023 is that although they are largely the same airlines as have been selected before there is room for new airlines too. Aegean, Air Busan, Azul, Bonza, Cebu Pacific, Chrono Aviation, Corsair, Euro Atlantic, flydubai, Kenya Airways and T'Way Air are all new airlines for NG this year but arguably the two Korean airlines and Azul have been well covered by other brands. Even so, I admit it certainly doesn't feel like you'll be that surprised when you look at an NG release list anymore. Also of the 'new' airlines only Cebu and Corsair are not contemporary releases.
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2023 by Region
When it comes to which areas of the globe releases relate to it is clear that Africa is typically under-represented with just that yet to be released Kenyan 737. Asia comes out top even when you split off Chinese releases, as below, but this version of Asia includes the Middle East (13 models) and so all those Qataris. South America, including Central America, has received better representation this year than it has before as there had only been 11 earlier models from the region in total.
Summary
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The overall trend for NG production in 2023 rather mirrors what was seen in 2022. Namely:
- Production is aimed mainly towards modern Airbus and Boeings
- The primary top 10 released NG airlines of all time mostly continue to get strong service
- Special schemes feature very strongly in the portfolio
- Second level airlines with colourful livery combinations such as Avianca (retro colours), Condor (stripes) and Icelandair are irresistible.
- It has become common to see the same airlines feature month on month - see Air India, Eva Air, Garuda and JetStar. Often these are relatively minor livery changes.
Below: NG loves special schemes:
- Classic releases appear to make up a very small portion of releases even where classic moulds are available.
- Buchannan Models is not filling the classics hole left by NG but focuses mainly on quite random hybrids unlikely to be particularly high on anyone's wantlist (the Iberia L-1011 is an exception but even that was a wet-leased aircraft).
- It seems unlikely that there will be significant numbers of all new 747SPs, L-1011s or Soviet-era jets in the rest of 2023 unless something changes.
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It is classic releases that I want to look at in the last part of this series. At one time it seemed NG Models was going to be an important source of classic releases but my feeling is that they have dwindled to the extent that they are now behind even brands like Phoenix. Let's see if the data tells that story in part 3 coming soon.