2023 - The Year In Review |
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There is no denying that 400 scale is in rude health, with more manufacturers and brands than since 2010 and more releases than ever before. The scale is also a hotbed of new mould production and improvement, pushing the detail and finishing of the models to new heights. A lot of this has been spurred by the continued rise of NG Models, but there are plenty of other newer brands about, plus several of the older brands are adapting to the new reality as well. In this piece I take a look at the year that was 2023 - how much was made, by whom and what has changed.
For the purposes of this review the data uses model announcements from 2023 rather than arrivals, since several brands (JC Wings, Panda and Aviation400) usually include a time delay of 3-6 months (regularly longer in JC's case) from announcement to release. Even brands such as NG Models and Phoenix can often have multi-month delays in releasing an announced model.
For the purposes of this review the data uses model announcements from 2023 rather than arrivals, since several brands (JC Wings, Panda and Aviation400) usually include a time delay of 3-6 months (regularly longer in JC's case) from announcement to release. Even brands such as NG Models and Phoenix can often have multi-month delays in releasing an announced model.
2023 PRODUCTION BY MANUFACTURER
This past year has been the most productive year in 400 scale to date with around 1,190 model releases being made - an increase of about 195 on last year. This has primarily been due to the continued rise in production of NG Models, who have expanded their production by about a third, but that is far from the whole story.
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Aeroclassics decreased production is largely due to their change in production facilities. As I understand it they have moved from a centralised factory to a de-centralised set of facilities where production is brought together at a final assembly line. During the period of this change there was a pause in releases that accounts for less models in 2023 compared to 2022.
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Aviation400 don't release monthly (they seem to release every 3-4 months) and so they often go under the radar, however they have increased their production volumes year on year and shown significant growth in 2023. They are also expanding their retailers and if this growth continues they will become a significant force in the scale. Proportionally, their growth is roughly on par with NG Models.
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Gemini continue to do what they have always done with little change - at least in terms of production. They appear to prefer to 'compete' by refusing to work with retailers that sell unlicensed models from other brands and by controlling, through their distributor business ADI, the flow of models from their partner JC Wings. Commercial agreements continue to be an important part of their business model.
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JC Wings continues to be the main driver of new mould production in the GJ/JC relationship and has recently begun to actively counter the growth of NG Models by releasing more models per month themselves. There has been a shakeup of the way of working at JC, which will hopefully begin to bear fruit in the new year. The increase in output per month will hopefully mean we begin to see the emptying of the large stockpile of old pre-made models often dating from years earlier. This will theoretically enable the production of more new and diverse models.
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Herpa are more irrelevent in 400 scale than ever. They appear to now have a production agreement with JC Wings and only made 1 model in 2023 in 400 scale.
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NG Models growth continues to be phenomenal and must include a significant amount of investment in the brand as it ramps up production and new mould development. There has never been growth like this in 400 scale before, albeit the number of releases being made is a little deceptive as NG has gone down the JC Wings route of producing multiple similar variants of the same aircraft/airline combo. This has both positives (for the bottomline and fleet builders) but also negatives (a decrease in diversity) and despite the increase in production NG have come in for some criticism this year.
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Like AV400 Panda often go under the radar, both because they don't release monthly and because more than any other manufacturer they produce models for other brands (like C Models) and as retailer exclusives. This can often make them hard to find and acquire, but the reality is that they are producing production runs of 120+ units (the same or larger than Aeroclassics) and are 3/4 the size of Gemini in terms of number of releases. They have grown slightly and are showing signs of significant expansion to come in 2024.
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Phoenix have shown the greatest transformation in 2023 and that has resulted in a modest growth in releases rather than the expected decrease. While their mould development remains largely static they have teamed up with a new collector voice and steered away from a lot of direct competition with NG Models and Aviation400. This has led them positively towards a more diverse and interesting set of models. It isn't all good news though, as alas they are still using their horrible 747 classics too!
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HYJLwings are a small brand producing mainly Chinese airliners for the home market. They use NG moulds but also have their own Airbus A321 series. Aside from an expansion to use the NG A350 and 737-800 they have continued to do what they were doing in 2022.
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Yu ModeL don't currently have their own production facilities (although that looks likely to change in 2024) so use others to make their models. For that reason they don't appear in the table above seperately, however they have shown strong growth in 2023 with ten releases in all. I've written about them more here:
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2023 PRODUCTION BY AIRCRAFT TYPE
Modern aircraft sell better than classics while at the same time Chinese manufacturers are stacked full of young Chinese workers who were born this century and have little or no knowledge of aviation history beyond what they see today. Even the year 2000 seems like a long time ago to them. The result is often a depressing lack of diversity in terms of both aircraft being made and the airline subjects. As you can see below Airbus and Boeing massively dominate with 87% of 400 scale output being their aircraft.
Production Split by Airline Manufacturer
Gemini Jets - Aeromexico MD-80
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Phoenix - Delta Air Lines MD-11
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Douglas and McDonnell Douglas products still come third thanks in part to a surprising boost for the MD-80 series with 7 releases from Gemini Jets and JC Wings. There have also been 11 MD-11s - 6 of which have been courtesy of Phoenix. Of course the majority of Douglas releases are from Aeroclassics with no less than 4 DC-4s, 3 DC-6s, 4 DC-9s and 14 DC-10s. Douglas products remain some of their finest.
Aeroclassics - Thai Airways DC-10
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Aeroclassics - Swissair DC-10
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The Embraers are 100% the preserve of JC Wings and Gemini Jets with their range of E-Jets. Lockheed is mainly made up of NG Tristars, with a small number of additional Aeroclassics and JC Wings Tristars plus two Gemini Electras. Sadly, the majority of the NG Tristars are near re-releases of ones they have made before. I'd kill for 13 all new NG Tristars as opposed to the 4 we got!
NG Models - Cathay Pacific Tristar
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Buchannan Models - Air Canada Tristar
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Tupolev does strongly off the back of the resurgence of interest in Soviet-era aircraft and moulds from 3 manufacturers - NG Models (Tu-154, Tu-204), Panda Models (Tu-134, Tu-204) and Phoenix (Tu-154). Even so, there have been way too many Russia State Transport Tu-204/214s from both NG and Panda so the picture isn't as rosy as it at first looks. Panda's Tu-134s continue to be bright spots and Phoenix have made some inspired choices for Tu-154s.
Panda Models - Malev Tu-134
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Phoenix Models - Kras Air Tu-154M
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Of the 29 models in the 'other' category 5 were Vickers Viscounts and 3 were Curtiss C-46s from Aeroclassics. There were 5 Ilyushins (1 Il-62, 2 Il-86 and 2 Il-96). The other 16 models were a diverse set of random types but a shout out must go to the 3 new Antonovs (An-26 and An-32) from JC Wings / Gemini Jets.
Aeroclassics - PWA Curtiss C-46
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JC Wings - Ukraine AF An-26
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AIRBUS PRODUCTION 2023
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BOEING PRODUCTION 2023
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Splitting out the Airbus and Boeing production and it is no surprise which families predominate. The A320ceo and 737NG continue to hold their own against the newer A320neo and 737MAX versions. A380 numbers are unusually high, seemingly driven by the competitive response to the new Aviation400 mould. Although AV400 announced only 11 in 2023 they had made a chunk at the end of 2022 too. The response from rivals was solid, JC Wings / Gemini (15) and Phoenix (6), albeit inferior.
Panda Models - BA A320-100
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NG Models - China United 737-800
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The A340 made something of a comeback this year with Phoenix accounting for 8 of the 13 made on their decent moulds.
Phoenix - Egyptair A340-300
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NG Models - Atlas Air 747-8F
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On the Boeing side of the ledger two types stand out for me. Firstly the 747 Classic received an incredible 84 models - no doubt partly a pre-emptive response to the upcoming NG moulds for the type. Sadly however 30 of these were from Phoenix on their quite awful moulds - see Phoenix 747s - Why They Are Bad & Why You Shouldn't Buy Them!
NG Models - Qantas 747SP
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Aeroclassics - United 747-200
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NG themselves used their own 747SP mould poorly. They made 7 but arguably only 3 were actually new. JC Wings made quite a few 747-400s using their new mould and Aeroclassics restarted 747 production at the end of the year with blanks acquired from JC Wings for some 747-100/200s.
Phoenix - AA 767-300
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Gemini Jets - Delta 767-400
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The other Boeing type that had an unusually strong year was the 767. Phoenix made an impressive 19 767-300s with an excellent range of liveries. The 767-400 was also popular with 7 models - 4 using the new, but disappointing, Gemini / JC mould and 3 announced but not yet released by Panda on their unseen mould.
NG Models - TWA 757
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NG Models - Continental 777-200
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It is also worth pointing out once again how poor the year was for 757s. NG made 11 but they were mainly rather niche efforts. The rest were mostly airlines made better before by NG, re-released by JC Wings. There was only a single 757-300 all year. On the more classic end of the spectrum Aeroclassics made some great choices for 727s and 737-200s but too often slipped up on the delivery.
Aeroclassics - Delta Shuttle 727-200
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Aeroclassics - Wien Consolidated 737-200
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MOULD PRODUCTION & MODERNISATION
New mould production in 2024 was constantly in the spotlight, although the majority of the pay-off will come in 2024 when lots of new announced moulds will finally hit the marketplace. Here is what was released all new in 2023 or announced for release in 2024.
Note that some moulds date from the end of 2022 such as Kawasaki C-1 (JC Wings), Airbus A380 (Aviation400) and Airbus A319neo, Tupolev Tu-134UBL (Panda Models). They are therefore excluded here.
Note that some moulds date from the end of 2022 such as Kawasaki C-1 (JC Wings), Airbus A380 (Aviation400) and Airbus A319neo, Tupolev Tu-134UBL (Panda Models). They are therefore excluded here.
Aviation400 - China Southern A320
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Aviation400 - Virgin A330-900
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Aviation400 have been busy in 2023 but not always successfully. Their new A330-900 was not a great success, although as I understand it they are modifying it to fix the issues. Their A320 and 787-9 with magnetic detachable gear were better.
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Gemini Jets and JC Wings also had mixed results. Both the new 737-600 and 767-400 were very disappointing new moulds, however the A300 Beluga and Antonov props were superb. There is much hope for the recently announced E195-E2 but no photos as of yet.
JC Wings - Antonov An-32
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JC Wings - A300 Beluga
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Panda Models has announced new moulds but we are yet to see if they are good or not.
Panda A350 and 767-400 Samples
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NG Models new mould production is incredible - both in terms of quality and number. Having said that most of the samples they sent me require tweaks of one kind or another.
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Phoenix haven't made any new moulds in 2023 but they did modify two of their existing moulds as below. It doesn't make them great but they are slightly more competitive due to the changes.
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2023 HIGHLIGHTS & LOWLIGHTS
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HIGHS
- A lot of strong competition between vibrant and increasingly responsive brands that want to work with collectors like me
- An incredible amount of exciting new moulds unveiled
- NG's CRP programme. It has got a lot of stick and isn't perfect, especially for retailers, but it works and they are free models!
- A more diverse and unique set of releases from Phoenix
- The continued growth and development of smaller brands (Yu ModeL, C Models, HYJLwings etc)
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LOWS
- Way, way too many modern Airbus and Boeings (and often on rubbish moulds - JC Wings / Gemini and Phoenix I'm looking at you when it comes to A320s and 737s!)
- Poor diversity of releases from NG Models and very poor usage of their more classic moulds
- 'Future' release announcements - they just cause confusion and trick people into preorders
- Some appalling quality control and finishing. Aeroclassics was easily the worst here but there was some shocking work at Gemini and JC Wings too. Everyone makes mistakes but there are mistakes and then there are mistakes!
- All those Phoenix 747s - such a shame
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INTO 2024
I am happy nowadays to have connections with and work with most of the major manufacturers, and several smaller brands too. Through that I know that there is plenty to look forward to in 2024. There are several more unannounced new moulds on the horizon, often coming from unexpected sources. Additionally, I really hope NG Models can get back on track after a somewhat disappointing 2023 with their 'Let Classic Be Classic' theme. I also have great hope for JC Wings who will hopefully be able to increasingly plough their own unique and interesting furrow. Hopefully they can use their impressive existing mould catalogue better and create new castings as well - both to add to and replace existing models. With Phoenix also now actively working with collectors there is great opportunity and hope in the new year for 400 scale.
I look forward to exploring the changes with you at Yesterday's Airlines. Happy New Year!!
I look forward to exploring the changes with you at Yesterday's Airlines. Happy New Year!!
