400 Scale Production Numbers & Why Flooding the Market is Nonsense
Modified: August 2023
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Nowadays most brands keep their production numbers reasonably secret but prior to the 2008 Global Financial Crash this wasn't the case as much. Even so, in 2023 for several brands it is reasonably well known roughly where they stand in terms of production if you pay attention, use the available resources and ask those in the know. The owner of one brand in particular uses the attack of others 'flooding the market' and 'being greedy' in his tirades and campaigns against superior competition. Disappointingly I see some people agree with him. Is there any truth to these attacks and how many models does each brand make per month? Let's investigate.
The Way Things Were
Production numbers for older releases were often published and are knowable by referring to the model databases such as DiMA. Let's take a look at a couple of the surviving major brands from that time. You can easily check the DiMA database to review production figures for individual models in these early periods.
Gemini Jets standard production in its earliest years (2000-2003) was 2,500 units per model. This seems to have fallen to around 2,000 units by 2003 and then to around 1,500 units by 2006. Some models were made in smaller numbers, the Gemini Jets Select line for example were limited to 500 pieces, but most were in the larger ranges.
These high production numbers are why I consider the vast majority of early Gemini releases to not be particularly 'rare' or worth especially high monetary values. |
Aeroclassics have always produced less models than Gemini. That is hardly a surprise given their more niche product range. Even so, in the earlier years of 400 scale they would routinely produce 400-500 units of most models. By 2005 production dropped to between 250-380 per model but this doesn't take into account similar livery combinations. For example, in 2005 3 Lufthansa and 1 Lufthansa hybrid 727-100 all got 360 pieces each. They wore broadly the same scheme. It appears production numbers stopped being published in 2007 and by that time a lot of the releases were down to the 200-250 range. Hangar Club exclusives always had smaller runs of 120-150 units.
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This sort of analysis can be done using the databases for most of the older brands except for Dragon Wings.
The Way Things Are
In 2009 Gemini appears to have stopped publishing production numbers, however it is widely known that post the GFC most Gemini releases, for retailer release anyway, do not reach the historic numbers and 500 units or lower appears more realistic.
With about ten releases a month that puts rough monthly 400 scale production for Gemini at around the 4-5,000 unit mark. Obviously, commercial deals with airlines like Emirates no doubt bump these numbers up substantially and monthly release numbers vary a little. |
The information here for Aeroclassics sales volumes comes from the following sources: Waffle Collectibles stock data (when they carried AC), discussion with retailers, statements by Jean Claude Cau, who is close to the AC owner, and Aeroclassics themselves on their FB page.
For example in March 2023 Aeroclassics themselves published the following production numbers:
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Production runs appear to be in the 100-125 piece range with similar liveries for models such as the Balair and Swissair DC-10s allowing smaller runs from larger sets. Basically the standard production runs are now the same size as Hangar Club exclusives.
With about 10 releases a month that means their 400 scale production is somewhere in the range of 1,100-1,250 models.
With about 10 releases a month that means their 400 scale production is somewhere in the range of 1,100-1,250 models.
For both Panda and JC Wings the minimum order quantity for retailer exclusive models is around the 240 mark. This can sometimes be split into two groups of 140 or so, each for similar models with minor livery differences.
As Panda only release 3 or 6 models a month I'd expect monthly production for them to be around the 1,000-1,200 mark.
JC Wings production numbers are often published against models at their retailer website AirModelMart. Most models state the production run is 240 units.
JC Wings also release around 10-12 models per month (they announce more but they are future releases). Given JC regularly split their releases with multiple similar variants and release those variants many months (sometimes years apart) their production may possibly not be as high as it may initially seem. I'd estimate it to be between 1,700 and 2,880 models per month.
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The Buchannan Models sub-brand has been making models in 'limited numbers' at I think around the 120 unit mark. Both of these strongly suggest that NG is making as a standard more than 200 units per primary aircraft/livery combo since the other models are described as 'limited'.
Recent multiple versions of minor livery variations for a given airline / aircraft combination have become standard and inflate the number of releases per month, probably without really increasing the amount of models produced. This is exactly the same tactic used regularly and most obviously by JC Wings. Talking with retailers the suggestion is that production is around the 500 mark for an airline / aircraft combo but then split between the multiple variants - of which there are often 3 or 4. This will decrease production units of many, but not all, individual releases to around the 150 mark - maybe sometimes less.
If that is true then for a month where let's say 35 models are announced, some are unique but most are variants of each other decreasing production numbers. That gives a total monthly production figure taking 35*150 in the following range: 5,000 to 6,000.
So if that is true NG are only making slightly more models than Gemini Jets are. That is hardly flooding the market.
Market Reach
Another factor to take into account is the retailer network for a brand. ADI distribute Gemini Jets and JC Wings in the USA and have a substantial reach. NG Models have over 70 retailers listed on their website - see retailer list. Other brands have much smaller retailer networks and whereas Gemini and NG can be found globally some brands are effectively missing in entire geographic regions, such as Asia.
There are over 8 billion people in the world and even if a tiny number collect 400 scale models there is still a huge potential market. This market appears to have been grown by NG models entering it, if anecdotal messages are taken into account. If it is assumed that NG make say 5,000 models a month split between 70 retailers that is only 71 models per retailer per month. Many of the retailers are small and probably take a lot less, but larger retailers such as Waffle Collectibles are taking 20+ units of multiple releases per month easily offsetting smaller orders from smaller stores. A well known retailer in the UK for example is ordering 150-250 models per month from NG.
Summary
Using the figures above it is possible to come to a very rough total of production for 400 scale per month in 2023, with a low and a high estimate. I'm not expecting this to be necessarily accurate but it does provide what I believe is a good guide of where production for 400 scale is in 2023 - certainly the best available without seeing actual production data. If you look at production numbers from the period 2000-2005 there are actually far less models being made nowadays than there was then - due to the much smaller production runs from the likes of Gemini Jets.
I don't know production for Aviation400 or Phoenix so I have provided estimates - sizing AV400 with Panda and Phoenix with JC Wings. Aviation400 don't release every month and Phoenix and JC Wings appear to have quite similar production. |
So are NG Flooding the Market?
There has been the suggestion that NG are flooding the market with models. This is due to the number of releases but also driven by desperate competitors trying to darken NG's name in any way they can and prop up their failing companies. Is it supported by the evidence? No, not really.
Production Totals: NG may make slightly more models than their nearest individual rival (Gemini) but in reality Gemini and JC Wings operate as a single entity for distribution purposes and in relation to non-competition of releases. Together they make more models than NG does.
Number of Releases: NG is making more individual releases than anyone else, and often almost as many as everyone else combined. However it is very likely that this has little or no impact on the number of models in the market. If you produce 4 Jetstar A320s with different liveries all at 150 units apiece then that is no different to making 1 Jetstar A320 at 600 units. What it does give is more choice for the collector - which is no bad thing.
Retailers: Retailers can carry as much or as little as they wish. Unlike some brands they are not forced to stock every release. I know of several retailers that buy the models they think will sell well in their region. Although smaller retailers may struggle with the number of separate releases, in the end it basically comes down to keeping their websites up to date and not much else.
Greed: The suggestion that NG's release strategy is greedy is laughable. If anything it is the opposite. They could simply make less models at higher volumes and get basically the same return. I'm not sure where the greed comes into it unless you think selling models is itself greedy.
Clearly NG have grown strongly in the 6 years of their existence and ruffled a lot of feathers. They also clearly want to compete and probably wouldn't be sad to see other brands exit the market. That is simply business. They may succeed and they may fail but I don't see anything in the numbers above to suggest that what they are doing is especially unsustainable or unsuccessful. In this case 'flooding the market' appears to be simply competition and some people just don't like that.